Iraq is entering a critical climate era as global warming impacts its economy, food production, social conditions, and public health sectors. With radical environmental changes widely felt, the country’s relative stability faces a simmering nexus of climate, security, and peace challenges (“Climate Risk Profile: Iraq”, 2022). Conflicts over water, declining food productivity, internal displacement, and ongoing threats of terrorism—compounded by the continuing climate crisis—could lead Iraq into an era of uncertain stability (“Climate security challenges in Iraq”, 2023).

Rising Temperatures and Diverse Climate

The country’s climate is diverse, with Mediterranean climates in the northern Kurdistan region contrasting sharply with the arid desert conditions in the south. This climate variability contributes to a complex environmental picture where rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increasing drought affect both agriculture and day-to-day life. Seasonal rains are becoming scarce, leading to prolonged droughts and desertification. In southern Iraq, water scarcity has led to conflicts between tribes, as drought and high temperatures amplify competition for water (العراق: اشتباكات عشائرية بسبب شح المياه, 2022). The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that by 2023, over 130,788 people were displaced due to drought conditions, with nearly half of all Iraqi farmers struggling below the poverty line (“DTM Iraq – Climate-Induced Displacement Southern Iraq”, 2023). According to the Iraqi Federation of Agricultural Associations, 40% of farmers have had to give up their profession to seek alternative sources of income (“Climate Change Overview: Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Iraq”, 2022). Agricultural productivity has sharply declined, with Iraq losing vast areas of farmland due to climate conditions and water shortages, especially as river flows from the Tigris and Euphrates diminish due to upstream dam projects by Turkey and Iran (Al-Muqdadi et at., 2024). 

As a result, Iraq has lost around 60% of its irrigated agricultural land, disrupting rural livelihoods and intensifying internal climate migration into urban areas. (الجفاف يقضم 60 في المئة من الأراضي الزراعية المروية, 2024). Dr. Shukri Al-Hasan, a professor in the Department of Geography at Basra University, emphasizes that water is the most contested natural resource among clans in southern Iraq, particularly as Iraq’s southern regions face recurring severe droughts. Dr. Al-Hasan, whose research focuses on environmental pollution, environmental issues, and impact assessment, identifies four factors driving these clan feuds: reduced water flow from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, increasing water demand, extreme environmental changes, and inadequate water management. 

Intensified Dust Storms and Health Hazards

Further exacerbating these issues are the physical effects of climate change, which include intensified dust storms and temperature extremes. Iraq experiences some of the highest recorded temperatures, frequently surpassing 50°C in the summer, putting outdoor workers, including farmers, at risk. Dust storms are increasingly common (“Climate Change Overview: Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Iraq”, 2022). These climate conditions endanger the health of vulnerable groups, from farmers to pregnant women and children as access to healthcare and protections remain limited. 

Despite escalating risks from climate change, Iraq’s federal Environmental Protection and Improvement Law remains outdated and does not address the damage caused by the climate crisis. Notably, climate change is not explicitly covered in any article of this national legislation, which dates back to 2009 (“Law on Protection and Improvement of the Environment”, 2020)

Legacy of Conflict and Poor Governance

Compounding environmental stressors is the legacy of conflict and poor governance. The effects of war, especially in the post-2003 invasion period and the ISIS crisis (2014), have had lasting impacts on Iraq’s infrastructure and agricultural productivity. Widespread displacement during the ISIS era disrupted food production, and, as a result, Iraq shifted from a largely food-independent country to one that relies heavily on imports. According to Hajer Al-Obeidy, an activist and journalist from Al-Anbar province in western Iraq, several post-ISIS factors prevent thousands of farmers from returning to their areas. These include remnants of war, demolished homes, livestock losses during the war, and water scarcity due to direct sabotage of water sources and agricultural systems. ‘While the region’s residents were self-sufficient in terms of food production before the war, today they import 80 percent of their food from outside Iraq,’ said Al-Obeidy. Mines left behind in former ISIS-held areas have rendered much of the land unusable, and the influence of non-state armed groups limits the government’s ability to implement climate policies or manage resources effectively. Meethaq Al-Khateeb, a journalist from Baghdad, highlights that the non-state armed groups controlling large areas in western Iraq after the expulsion of ISIS did not remain solely military entities but began to invest heavily in lands belonging to local residents. According to him, these groups exploit local resources to finance and sustain their activities. The control these groups exert, especially in Iraq’s western regions, means that resources are often exploited to finance ongoing conflicts, leaving local communities without the ability to sustainably manage their environments. 

Regional Water Issues

Neighboring countries have also played a role in Iraq’s environmental challenges. Turkey’s Great Anatolia Project (GAP), an extensive dam initiative, and Iran’s damming of tributaries to the Tigris have drastically reduced water flowing into Iraq, impacting both drinking water availability and agriculture (“Climate Risk Profile: Iraq”, 2022). This regional water crisis amplifies Iraq’s vulnerability, with over 70% of the country’s water originating from outside its borders. 

Budget Constraints and Legal Gaps

Addressing Iraq’s environmental crisis requires a multifaceted approach, but efforts remain limited by governance challenges. The country allocates only 1% of its budget to the Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Agriculture, leaving little capacity for comprehensive climate adaptation. Legal protections for the environment are outdated and lack specific provisions to combat the effects of climate change. International organizations, like the United Nations, have urged action, adopting principles for the Protection of the Environment in Relation to Armed Conflict (PERAC) in 2022. These guidelines call for protections for both people and the environment in conflict zones, emphasizing that the ecological damage from warfare poses broader humanitarian and security risks (“Draft Principles for the Protection of the Environment in Relation to Armed Conflicts”, 2022).

Calls for Reform

Iraq’s environmental future depends on meaningful reforms. Climate journalist Peter Schwartzstein The author of (Heat and the Fury…On the Frontline of Climate Violence) argues that both environmental stresses and governance issues need addressing to prevent further instability. Schwartzstein suggests that improved farming practices and water management could help alleviate some climate pressures. 

However, reducing corruption and strengthening management capacities may prove even more challenging. With Iraq’s population projected to double by 2085, continued inaction could lead to severe economic, social, and ecological collapse. Iraq stands at a crossroads: failure to address these intersecting crises may result in a more profound humanitarian and environmental tragedy, while coordinated climate action could help stabilize the nation’s future.

References

Al-Muqdadi, S. W. H., Abdalwahab, N. S., Almallah, I. A. R., Hussein, S. F., Yassin, A., Salim, S. O. M., Alfarraji, M. J., Mishbak, H. H. M., Altuma, L. R. S., & Abdulrahman, B. (2024). The complex system of climate change security and the ripple effect of water–food–socioeconomic nexus. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(6), Article 3928. Retrieved from https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/3928

Al-Obeidy, H. (2023). [Personal communication].

Climate Change Overview: Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Iraq. (July, 2022). Kapita. Retrieved from https://kapita.iq/storage/app/media/New%20Research%20Publications/Climate%20Change%20Overview.pdf

Climate Risk Profile: Iraq. ( July 20, 2022). Weathering Risk. Retrieved from https://weatheringrisk.org/en/publication/Climate-Risk-Profile-Iraq

Climate security challenges in Iraq: Entry points for local-level dialogue. ( Dec 20, 2023). Climate Diplomacy. Retrieved from https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/cooperation/climate-security-challenges-iraq-entry-points-local-level-dialogue

Law on Protection and Improvement of the Environment. ( Dec 23, 2020). IEA. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/policies/12001-law-on-protection-and-improvement-of-the-environment-law-no-27-of-2009#

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. (2022). ScienceDirect. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com

Draft Principles on Protection of the Environment in Relation to Armed Conflict. (2022). United Nations. Retrieved from https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/draft_articles/8_7_2022.pdf

الجفاف يقضم 60 في المئة من الأراضي الزراعية المروية.(Aug 20, 2024) Al-Aalem. 

العراق: اشتباكات عشائرية بسبب شح المياه. (Sep 25, 2022). Al-Jarida. Retrieved from https://www.aljarida.com/articles/1664040283952452100

DTM Iraq – Climate-Induced Displacement Southern Iraq. (September 1-15, 2023). International Organization for Migration (IOM). Retrieved from https://dtm.iom.int/reports/iraq-climate-induced-displacement-southern-iraq-1-15-september-2023#:~:text=As%20of%2015%20September%202023,74%25)%20being%20urban%20locations.