Summary: 

This analysis delves into the extensive diplomatic engagement of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his visit to Iraq, which has paved the way for a promising future. Over 20 agreements and memorials of understanding were signed, addressing crucial issues such as combating terrorism from the PKK, managing water resources, and bolstering economic partnerships through trade and energy initiatives. Erdogan’s visit is a strategic move to cement Turkey's ties with Iraq, a mutually beneficial step that also addresses regional challenges and domestic political objectives. The visit's key objectives include boosting trade, establishing a counterterrorism center, and leveraging Iraq projects, like the Development Road Project, to bolster Turkey's economic standing.   

Introduction:

Following the visit of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Turkish Minister of National Defense, and the Turkish Director of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) to Baghdad earlier in March 2024, the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, officially announced his diplomatic visit to Iraq. Based on Hakan Fidan’s earlier visit to the USA, Turkey is trying to persuade the US not to react to the operation that Turkey plans to carry out this year.

This comes after Turkey’s Cabinet meeting on March 4, 2024, in which Erdogan announced to finalize a security plan to secure Turkey's borders with Iraq. He stated that Turkey aims to permanently solve the issue regarding its borders with Iraq by the summer. This visit aims to describe the strategic move of the two countries’ relations to a new level. The most important factors of the visit include the fight against PKK, water resource use, and natural gas and oil flow to Turkey.

The Historical Context of Turkey-Iraq Relations: 

The Historical Context of Turkey-Iraq Relations: Turkey and Iraq's diplomatic and political relationship is not just a strategic tie, but a longstanding bond dating back to the 20th century. Turkey views Iraq as more than just a neighbor, but a crucial one, and Iraq's stability and security directly impact Turkey’s political and economic stability, underscoring the depth and significance of their relationship. 

The most crucial factor of the ties between the two nations includes counterterrorism efforts in which Turkey highly focuses on urges by Iraq authorities to take more decisive action against PKK's presence on its territory, and Turkey has inserted airspace restrictions on flights originating from airports in the Sulaymaniyah region since last year. 

As a result of back-to-back meetings since December 2023, Turkey and Iraq have reached an agreement to fight against the PKK, which continues to exist in Iraqi territory and, in recent years, has its influence in regions such as Sulaymaniyah, near the Iranian border.

Other strategic factors in their relationship include economic and energy-related factors. As mentioned, the visit has finalized the two nations' most critical political and economic factors. These involve sharing water resources equally, oil and gas flow to Turkey, and border securities.  

Water Diplomacy: Sharing Crucial Resources: 

Upon announcing the visit, it was mentioned that over 20 agreements would be signed. Steps to increase the trade volume between Turkey and Iraq are the main focus of the visit. Consequently, aiming to increase the trade volume between the two countries to reach 20 billion dollars by 2030. 

In addition, sharing water resources between the two countries is at the top of the visit’s priorities, and the Iraqi authorities are more focused on this as the country has been facing water issues in the past. 

Aiming for Stability: Security and Counterterrorism Focus:

Additionally, Turkey is planning to establish a joint operations center with Iraq against terrorism. This comes after Turkey stated that PKK activities and actions have been widened in Kirkuk, Basra, and Sulaymaniyah regions. Turkey noted that these activities pose a national security threat beyond just a problem for Turkey.

From the start of the election campaigns in March for the local elections in Turkey, Erdogan circulated his party’s agenda around critical points to regain ultimate power among the locals of Turkey. Kandil issues and economic concerns were at the top of every speech by Erdogan and the party’s candidates for the election. 

However, Turkey's central crisis has been facing its economic collapse in the last five years. The main factors affecting this, besides irregular governance by the Turkish government, include Kurdistan oil-export cuts to Turkey. This cut has significantly affected its economy since Turkey is one of Western countries' leading oil and gas distributors. 

Moreover, as Erdogan has recently lost popularity and power, the use of fighting against PKK and diminishing it from its borders is a way that he tries to persuade Turkish citizens and gain control. 

Economic Bonds: Trade, Energy, and Infrastructure: 

In addition, by completing the Faw port in Basra, Turkey is trying to gain advantages from this massive project as a source of its economy. Therefore, signing the Development Road project with Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is a significant advantage for Turkey and a massive achievement for Erdogan. 

Even though more than 20 agreements were signed as planned, Turkey's primary goal in this visit is possibly for economic concerns. Turkey, specifically Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been shifting its ties and relations with the Arab countries, and Qatar and Turkey have a long trade relationship. Therefore, the project will take Turkey’s trade relations with these countries to a higher level. As mentioned before, Kandil's concern was part of Erdogan's local election agenda regarding border security. Therefore, he used this point as strong against opposition and newly emerged parties in the Local of Turkey. 

Political Maneuvers: Domestic Implications of Foreign Policy: 

As in the recent years due to the economic hardship of Turkey, Erdogan has been facing domestic challenges. Criticism by the Turkish public on this issue has affected Erdogan’s political standing as much as people’s economic well-being. Following the presidential and local elections of Turkey, Erdogan’s diplomatic visits especially to the Middle East countries, were aiming in regaining political standing of within those criticism and challenges. 

With notices of the Turkish public disappointment with Erdogan and his political party since the presidential elections in May 2023, he has shifted his discourse towards actions for restricting the PKK and economic concerns. Emphasizes for strengthening border security and countering PKK actions are for the attempts to satisfy the Turkish public as whole and reinforce the standing image of Erdogan as a strong leader and the only power safeguarding the country’s national priorities. 

In addition, the economic focus of the visit, particularly the Development Road project, stands with Erdogan’s efforts towards tackling the economic challenges of Turkey. The Development Road project, would become a huge support for Turkey’s economy as it would facilitate the route of trade between Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries specifically gulf countries. The project would make Turkey the top trade route to the western countries. This initiative taken, if succeeded or not in implementation, serves as a substantial commitment for Erdogan’s administration towards the economy of Turkey.

Generally, the actions of Erdogan and his visit to Iraq and shifts in diplomatic relations towards Arab countries, shows his interest in the Middle East as well as benefiting from the wealth of those countries though economic partnership and trade. On the other hand, with the latest movements and actions by the Turkish authorities in improving the military and air force utilities and the discourse on supports for Gazza in the Israel-Gazza war, and PKK activities in the Iraqi boarders, Turkey, or particularly Erdogan try to become an international security and military force in the Middle East in which it might reshape the Turkish public opinion on Erdogan.

Conclusion: Outcomes and Future Prospects:

Turkey’s President Erdogan's visit to Iraq, which included a high-level diplomatic engagement, addressed the country’s aims of developing diplomatic relations and solving regional challenges. 

Rooted in the historical political and economic ties between Iraq and Turkey, Erdogan’s visit focused on critical challenges, including the fight against PKK and tightening border security, water resources concerns, and economic prospects. 

Besides the visit agenda areas, Erdogan aims to develop and enhance trade volume. In addition, Turkey seeks to establish a mutual effort to fight against PKK on the borders of Iraq, as it is believed to be a national threat to both countries. 

This visit also indicates that Turkey seeks to overcome domestic challenges by improving economic relations, specifically with the Development Road Project, and increasing Erdogan’s political standing within Turkey.